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On September 30, 2026, the Federal Reserve finalized two changes to its annual stress tests. One makes the test more open to public scrutiny. The other changes how stress-test results feed into the capital buffers that large banks must hold.
Stress tests are not just an academic exercise. Their results influence the stress capital buffer (SCB) that sits on top of a bank’s minimum capital requirements. The Fed says the new framework should reduce year-to-year volatility without materially changing aggregate capital levels.
What changed
The first final rule requires annual public input on hypothetical stress scenarios and material model changes. It also updates the scenario-design framework, adopts models for the 2027 stress test, adjusts the calendar and revises the global market shock used for banks with large trading books.
The second rule changes the SCB calculation. For firms tested in two consecutive years, the Fed will average the two most recent annual supervisory stress-test results. Averaging begins in 2028 so that the calculation uses models that have gone through the new public-input process.
The Fed estimates the changes are likely to reduce year-over-year volatility in capital requirements by about 50%. That is a policy estimate; the actual effect will depend on future scenarios, models and bank-specific results.
Why the two-year average matters
A single-year result can move sharply when the scenario, model or a bank’s portfolio changes. Averaging dampens that movement and can make capital planning less sensitive to one test cycle. The trade-off is that a newly deteriorating result may also enter the capital requirement more gradually.
That is why the reform should not be reduced to “easier” or “harder” regulation. It changes the timing and transparency of the mechanism. Whether a particular bank ultimately holds more or less capital still depends on its own results.
One important correction
The Fed’s official release identifies Michelle W. Bowman as Vice Chair for Supervision. It separately links statements by Governor Michael S. Barr and Governor Lisa D. Cook. Barr’s statement is therefore a governor’s statement, not a statement by the current vice chair for supervision.
The official publication date is September 30, 2026. These details do not change the rules, but they matter when distinguishing the Board’s decision from individual officials’ views.
What to watch
The next milestones are the 2027 stress-test implementation under the revised transparency framework and the start of two-year SCB averaging in 2028. The Fed is also seeking comment on a separate proposal concerning how its noninterest-income model captures differences in banks’ business models.
The durable takeaway: the Fed is trying to make stress testing more contestable and less volatile while keeping it tied to bank-specific risk. Its real effect will be measurable only after the new process runs through actual test cycles.